every forward call in stellar times, in one place. each has a date, our confidence and one reason. we keep every call in sitewide sync with the countdown and the homepage.
the headline bet low
2 years, 8 months, 24 days 998 days from today in ET
whythe first crew launches 12/15/2028 and makes about a 6-month trip. NASA’s ice map puts water less than a foot down at Arcadia Planitia. the reasoning
the first human steps onto Mars, at Arcadia Planitia · our call
the second big one low
1 year, 11 months, 11 days 712 days from today in ET
whyNASA targets 2028; the crewed lander must first prove refilling, a Moon landing and months of crew life. the reasoning
Artemis IV: the first crew lands on the Moon in a Starship · our call
track record
0 graded so far. the first call comes due in late 11/2026, with Starship Flight 15. when a date arrives we mark the call hit, miss or moved, and it stays here with the date we made it.
high medium low BAA confidence that the date holds within about 3 months. high is only for spacecraft already on their way, where orbital mechanics sets the date.
Starship Flight 15 makes the first ship catch at the launch tower
booster catches have worked since Flight 5; a ship comes back from orbit hotter and faster, so the catch is harder. in the edition
baa’s bet: first starship ship catch late 11/2026
the first propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit, a partial refill for the Mars demo
no one has moved super-cold propellant between ships at this scale; every Moon and Mars trip needs it. in the edition
baa’s bet: first ship-to-ship propellant transfer 11/27/2026
one uncrewed Starship launches for Mars, a small landing demo
the window closes 12/08. SpaceX said the Moon comes first, but a light demo costs little and tests landing in Martian air. in the edition
baa’s bet: uncrewed starship launches for mars 12/01/2026
New Glenn flies again after the 05/28/2026 pad explosion
Blue Origin aims for year end, which Ars calls “probably ambitious”; its only New Glenn pad was wrecked. in the edition
baa’s bet: new glenn flies again 02/2027
China’s Chang’e-7 launches for the lunar south pole
China called off the 2026 window for “absolute success”; the hardware is built, so the next good window is likely. in the edition
baa’s bet: chang’e-7 launches for the moon 03/2027
the first uncrewed Starship lands on the Moon
SpaceX targeted 03/2027; it needs about 10 tanker flights first, so we add a few weeks. in the edition
baa’s bet: first uncrewed starship on the moon 04/15/2027
Chang’e-7 lands near the lunar south pole, two months after Starship’s first Moon landing
China’s plan is about three months of scouting from orbit before it lands. in the edition
baa’s bet: chang’e-7 lands at the lunar south pole 06/2027
Artemis III: a crew in Orion docks with a commercial lander in Earth orbit
the administrator is “very confident” in summer 2027, and the mission stays in Earth orbit. in the edition
baa’s bet: artemis iii docks in earth orbit mid-2027 · NASA target
the first Starship lands on Mars
if the demo leaves in 12/2026, physics sets arrival about 7 months later; the landing itself is the risk. in the edition
baa’s bet: first starship lands on mars 07/01/2027
Blue Moon Mark 1 lands on the Moon with two NASA payloads
it is 01/2027 on NASA’s list, but it cannot fly until New Glenn flies again. in the edition
baa’s bet: blue moon mark 1 lands on the moon fall 2027
the first crew launches for Mars, two weeks after cargo with power, a propellant plant and habitats
the late-2028 window is the first one after the Mars demo lands, so crews can use what it teaches. in the edition
baa’s bet: first crew launches for mars 12/15/2028
the first rocket propellant made on Mars
the plant lands two weeks before the crew; making methane and oxygen at scale takes months of tuning. in the edition
baa’s bet: first rocket propellant made on mars 03/01/2030
Europa Clipper enters orbit around Jupiter
Clipper is already on its way; after the 12/03/2026 Earth flyby, orbital mechanics sets the date. in the edition · NASA timeline · JPL press kit
baa’s bet: europa clipper reaches jupiter 04/11/2030 · NASA target
about 1 GW of computing in orbit, all operators (base case; range 20 MW to 15 GW)
it takes about 133 Starship launches of compute; heat, not launch, is the hard limit. in the edition
baa’s bet: about 1 gw of computing in orbit by end of 2030
the second Mars wave launches: more crew, power and cargo
Mars windows come about every 26 months; this is the next one after the first crew. in the edition
baa’s bet: second mars wave launches 02/20/2031
Europa Clipper makes its first close flyby of Europa, just over 200 km up
the tour is planned to the day; NASA says spring 2031, and the mission team’s 2025 paper gives 03/07/2031. the reasoning · NASA timeline · EPSC-DPS 2025 abstract
baa’s bet: first close europa flyby 03/07/2031 · mission plan
the first Mars rock in a lab on Earth is China’s, from Tianwen-3
the US sample return is cancelled; Tianwen-3 launches in 2028 and returns in 2031 (China target). watch for a sample-return line in the final FY2027 US budget. in the edition
baa’s bet: first mars rock on earth is china’s, 2031
the third Mars wave launches: habitats, spare ships and supplies
the window after next; the base grows only if the first crews and plants work. in the edition
baa’s bet: third mars wave launches 04/20/2033
the first probe melts through Europa’s ice and looks for life in its ocean (launch about 2047)
no Europa lander or ice-melting probe is funded today; the next decadal survey, about 2032, is the first real chance to pick one. the reasoning
baa’s bet: first probe in europa’s ocean 2055
the long bet · europa
in one line Clipper maps Europa from above from 2031. no lander or ice-melting probe is funded. our call: the first probe reaches the ocean in 2055, after a launch in about 2047. low confidence.
what moves it: earlier if Clipper finds thin ice or water pockets near the surface, or if a cheaper heavy launch makes a big lander affordable. later if the ice is thicker than 25 km or the next decadal picks another world first.
as of 10/04/2026. dates are calendar dates in ET. “our call” is a BAA estimate from public sources, not a company or agency commitment. every number and its source · back to the edition