benjamin aaron advisors · research

starlink tracker

estimated users from design downlink · assumptions toggled below

0
users
~60 Mbps design/sub · 100% of design
0 Tbps design
jan 2020
v1 0
v1.5 0
v2 mini 0
v3 0

presets

quality · Mbps busy-hour concurrent

usable share of design

estimated users = design Tbps × 1,000,000 × usable share / Mbps per user. default preset is calibrated (~60 Mbps design stock per sub at 100% of design), investor-facing. 3 Mbps is a reasonable busy-hour concurrent planning assumption under the other presets.

bear - users base - users bull - users end-2028 · capacity-implied

footnotes · sources and assumptions

Design downlink per sat (BAA encoding): V1 17 Gbps (secondary consensus); V1.5 24 Gbps (implied by SpaceX “4×” vs V2 Mini 96); V2 Mini / Optimized 96 Gbps (SpaceX 2024 Progress Report); V3 1,000 Gbps / 1 Tbps downlink (SpaceX V3 specs as reported 2024 to 2026).

Fleet path is a BAA reconstruction from public sat counts and press coverage (end-2020 ~15 Tbps; end-2024 ~300 to 350 Tbps operational design anchor from Progress Report coverage; mid/late 2025 to Sep 2026 climb to ~700 to 800 Tbps). Forecast uses V3 Starship cadence: Flight 14 late Sep 2026 (+26 V3); later loads up to 60 V3. Base: ~50 to 80 V3 end-2026, ~1,000 mid-2027, ~3,500 end-2028. Bear ~⅓ and bull ~2× base V3 adds. Pre-V3 fleet flat-to-slowly rising. Vertical markers: v2 mini, optimized, v3 flight 14, actual | forecast.

Design capacity ≠ sold throughput. Users shown are capacity-implied estimates from toggleable busy-hour Mbps and usable-share assumptions, not SpaceX guidance. Full write-up: starlink-bandwidth-model.md. No third-party investor deck numbers copied.